Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.190471 1.253682 1.319146 1.392154 1.471475 1.555240 1.650639
2025-12-21 1.086925 1.175611 1.271305 1.382792 1.509820 1.650903 1.820650
2025-12-28 1.033014 1.138229 1.255084 1.395585 1.561419 1.752829 1.993318
2026-01-04 0.979282 1.094217 1.224699 1.385464 1.580578 1.812903 2.115479
2026-01-11 0.948165 1.072781 1.217078 1.398884 1.625339 1.903067 2.277631
2026-01-18 0.915795 1.047091 1.201686 1.400234 1.653191 1.971645 2.414929
2026-01-25 0.898880 1.038399 1.205410 1.424054 1.709071 2.077708 2.608227
2026-02-01 0.860563 1.001377 1.171921 1.398272 1.698277 2.094082 2.678098
2026-02-08 0.820746 0.960699 1.131824 1.361525 1.670199 2.084296 2.708452
2026-02-15 0.795363 0.936975 1.111941 1.349726 1.674190 2.117694 2.802561
2026-02-22 0.777368 0.921762 1.102067 1.350253 1.694334 2.173993 2.934102
2026-03-01 0.752495 0.896788 1.078460 1.331041 1.685643 2.187806 3.000461
2026-03-08 0.723850 0.866768 1.048120 1.302664 1.664354 2.184413 3.043542
2026-03-15 0.704695 0.848525 1.032706 1.294133 1.670948 2.222735 3.157393
2026-03-22 0.694602 0.841690 1.032024 1.305700 1.706806 2.306964 3.354618
2026-03-29 0.677490 0.824928 1.017249 1.296549 1.711240 2.342339 3.470859
2026-04-05 0.669139 0.819509 1.017557 1.308682 1.747859 2.430444 3.688722
2026-04-12 0.657461 0.809180 1.010653 1.309902 1.767582 2.492147 3.864476
2026-04-19 0.653357 0.808922 1.017568 1.331419 1.819629 2.610490 4.160869
2026-04-26 0.634612 0.788076 0.994942 1.308128 1.799559 2.605187 4.213472
2026-05-03 0.613477 0.763448 0.966329 1.274893 1.762087 2.567643 4.197125
2026-05-10 0.600541 0.749858 0.952997 1.264213 1.760485 2.592429 4.311709
2026-05-17 0.591723 0.741748 0.947208 1.264690 1.776941 2.649945 4.501628